Operational risks
A 1 per cent change in deliveries and the price of the Group’s products or significant input goods is deemed to affect Group operating profit as per the table on the right.
Earnings are relatively evenly spread over the year. The clearest seasonal effects are lower personnel costs in the third quarter and the fact that electricity production at the hydro power plants is normally higher in the first and fourth
quarters.
Holmen hedges part of the electricity consumption at the paper mills. For 2025, price hedges are in place covering 85 per cent of full production. 45 per cent is hedged for 2026 and 10 per cent for 2027.
SaleYear 2024 |
Change |
Price |
Deliveries |
| Board and Paper | +/-1 % | 153 | 59 |
| Wood Products | +/-1 % | 37 | 11 |
| Wood from company forests | +/-1 % | 20 | 14 |
| Hydro and wind power | +/-1 % | 6 | 5 |
Input goodsYear 2024 |
change | price | |
| Wood* | +/-1 % | 52 | |
| Electricity* | +/-1 % | 3 | |
| Chemicals | +/-1 % | 20 | |
| Other variable costs | +/-1 % | 8 | |
| Delivery- costs |
+/-1 % | 22 | |
| Employees | +/-1 % | 30 | |
| Other fixed costs | +/-1 % | 21 |
SaleYear 2024 |
Change |
Price |
Deliveries |
| Board and Paper | +/-1 % | 153 | 59 |
| Wood Products | +/-1 % | 37 | 11 |
| Wood from company forests | +/-1 % | 20 | 14 |
| Hydro and wind power | +/-1 % | 6 | 5 |
Input goodsYear 2024 |
change | price | |
| Wood* | +/-1 % | 52 | |
| Electricity* | +/-1 % | 3 | |
| Chemicals | +/-1 % | 20 | |
| Other variable costs | +/-1 % | 8 | |
| Delivery- costs |
+/-1 % | 22 | |
| Employees | +/-1 % | 30 | |
| Other fixed costs | +/-1 % | 21 |
* Taking electricity price hedges for 2025 into account. Without taking hedges into account, the corresponding impact would be SEK 11 million
Financial risks
The table on the right shows the extent of the impact of any change in the Swedish krona, the price of electricity or the market interest rate on Group profit/loss before tax and equity next year, taking account of hedging. The adopted change is calculated based on five years’ average historical volatility for each instrument, which is deemed to be a reasonable change going forward. The historical volatility of exchange rates is calculated based on average annual volatility on the KIX, the Riksbank’s exchange rate index. Excluding hedging, a 5 per cent change in the krona would affect the profit/loss before tax by SEK 508 million a year.
Profit/loss before tax* Year 2024 |
Change |
SEKm |
| Exchange rate total | +/-5 % | 225 |
| EUR/SEK | +/-5 % | 33 |
| USD/SEK | +/-5 % | 100 |
| GBP/SEK | +/-5 % | 54 |
| Other currencies/SEK | +/-5 % | 38 |
| Borrowing rate | +/- 1 % point | 1 |
Equity |
Change |
SEKm |
| Transaction- hedging |
+/-5 % | 570 |
| Investment- hedging |
+/-5 % | 51 |
| Equity hedging | +/-5 % | 73 |
| Electricity price hedging | +/-60 % | 986 |
| Interest rate hedging | +/- 1 %point | 61 |
Profit/loss before tax* Year 2024 |
Change |
SEKm |
| Exchange rate total | +/-5 % | 225 |
| EUR/SEK | +/-5 % | 33 |
| USD/SEK | +/-5 % | 100 |
| GBP/SEK | +/-5 % | 54 |
| Other currencies/SEK | +/-5 % | 38 |
| Borrowing rate | +/- 1 % point | 1 |
Equity |
Change |
SEKm |
| Transaction- hedging |
+/-5 % | 570 |
| Investment- hedging |
+/-5 % | 51 |
| Equity hedging | +/-5 % | 73 |
| Electricity price hedging | +/-60 % | 986 |
| Interest rate hedging | +/- 1 %point | 61 |
* Estimated effect for 2025 including hedging.
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